The GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index rose by nine points this month to -16.
Confidence in “general economy” over the next 12 months has experienced an increase of thirteen points to +4.
This measure has not been at this level since May 1998, when the score was +7.
The ‘major purchase Index’, has risen eleven points to -15.
GfK NOP Consumer Confidence - September 2009
Nick Moon, MD of GfK NOP Social Research comments,
“Having been static since June, the GfK NOP Consumer Confidence index jumped 9 points to -16 this month, one of its biggest ever monthly changes. It is still clearly negative, so the government shouldn’t get too carried away, but the new figure is the best the index has been since January 2008.
“Looking at the individual elements of the index, every one of them improved this month, making the idea of this jump being a statistical blip slightly less likely. Psychologically important is the fact that confidence in people’s own personal finances for the next 12 months and confidence in the general economy over the next twelve months both moved into positive territory, after being in the red for well over a year.
“One should, of course, always be suspicious of a large change in any single month in a regular study, and Gordon Brown would be well advised to wait to see what our October index shows before celebrating; but it is still positive news that there has been an improvement in the Index for the first time in 4 months.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures - September 2009
The overall index score this month remained at -16, sixteen points better than this time last year.
All of the measures this month experienced a marked improvement. The annual moving average also improved and is now, -29.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year has increased by five points to a score of -13; this is six points higher than this time last year.
The forecast for personal finances over the next year increased 5 points to a score of +5. This is sixteen points higher than September ’08.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has risen by six points to –63; one point higher than this time last year.
An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months improved by thirteen points and now has a score of +4, and is thirty-six points higher than September ’08. The score has not been this high since May 1998 with a score of +7.
Climate for Major Purchases
The major purchases measure has risen by eleven points to -15; seventeen points higher than this time last year.
The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index, has risen five points to -5, but is still twenty-three points lower than in September ’08.
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