TNS-BMRB Voting Intention Poll results: 29th April – 4th May 2010
Voters still undecided
* Just over four in ten likely voters (41%) say they are still not certain about which party they will place their cross by in the polling booth on May 6th. This has fallen slightly from a half of all probable voters at the beginning of the campaign (50%), but is still a very high figure as we enter the finishing straight of the 2010 general election.
TNS-BMRB's seat prediction model - more positive for conservatives
* This is one of the most detailed models as it takes into account the race conditions for each individual seat and differs from the uniform national swing.
Compared to the traditional model it paints a more positive picture for the Conservatives who would have 292 seats, Labour 204 and the Liberal Democrats would have 114.
In contrast the uniform national swing, with TNS-BMRB’s polling figures, would show Labour and the Conservatives having nearly the same number of seats (Con 260; Lab 263) and the Liberal Democrats trailing significantly (98). The TNS-BMRB seat prediction model uses the ‘soft voters’ preferred party choice.
TNS-BMRB interviewed a representative sample of 1,864 GB adults aged 18+ between 29/4/10 and 4/5/10.
All interviews were conducted in respondents’ homes, although the voting intention data was collected using self-completion methods.
The data is weighted twice, firstly to match population totals for age, sex, social grade, working status, presence of children, 2005 voting patterns, constituency type, and region, and secondly, for voting intention questions only, an additional 'likelihood-to-vote' weight has been applied.
TNS-BMRB is a leading provider of specialist social research, offering insight into public policy to government and not-for-profit clients. Delivering a range of approaches including bespoke proprietary research and consultancy, random probability survey capabilities, as well as social marketing and polling, TNS-BMRB is the largest commercial provider of social research and insight to Whitehall. TNS-BMRB is part of the TNS group.
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United Kingdom - 6 May 2010