Consumer Confidence Barometer (January 2011)
Written by GfK NOP
11 Feb 2011
Consumer Confidence drops to lowest level for 12 months
The GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index has dropped eight points this month to -29.
January saw decreases across all five measures; the most notable decrease was in the “major purchase index” which dropped twenty one points.
Nick Moon, MD of GfK NOP Social Research, comments:
“January?s eight point drop represents an astonishing collapse in consumer confidence. In the 35 years since the Index began, confidence has only slumped this much on six occasions, the last being in the midst of the 1992 recession.
"The VAT increase is the first of the government?s austerity measures that has had a widespread impact on consumers, and it seems to have hit people's economic confidence hard, especially as the biggest drop was in consumers' appetite for major purchases. With inflation on the up and the full force of the cuts yet to hit, these figures could be the beginning of a very painful period.
"There is a chance that these figures represent a post-Christmas blip, but even if there is a rally in February it is extremely unlikely that it will reverse this massive drop. Today's figures, when combined with the bleak economic forecast, will make talk of a double dip recession unavoidable."
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – January 2011
The overall index score this month has dropped eight points to -29, twelve points lower than this time last year. All five measures decreased this month, the most notable decrease in the “major purchase index”.
The annual moving average drops one point to -19.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last twelve months has decreased two points this month, at -18; this is four points lower than this time last year.
The forecast for personal finances over the next twelve months decreased four points to -12; this is sixteen points lower than January „10.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has decreased by three points to –54; three points higher than this time last year.
An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months has decreased by seven points to -30, twenty eight points lower than January „10.
Climate for Major Purchases
The major purchases measure has decreased by twenty two points to -29; thirteen points lower than this time last year.
The „now is a good time to save? Index, has increased five points to -5, which is three points lower than January „10.
About the survey
The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK NOP was conducted amongst a sample of 2000 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.
Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
Interviewing was carried out during 7th – 16th January 2011.
The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%
Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are normally available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am; the release date for February is Friday 25th February 2011.
Any published material requires a reference to both GfK NOP and the European Commission e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission’.
This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 1996.
The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
About GfK NOP
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28 January 2011
Last Updated ( 18 Feb 2011 )