Conservatives (38%) Lead Charging NDP (33%), Decimated Liberals (18%) as Bloc (7%) Falter and Green (4%) Trail Far Behind
Despite the recent surge of the NDP and Jack Layton, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party are poised to win Monday’s Federal Election, but voter turnout on Election Day will tell whether it will be a Tory minority or majority government.
A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday exclusively for Postmedia News and Global National reveals that, if Election Day were tomorrow, the Conservatives would receive 38% of the popular vote among decided voters (down 5 points).
Jack Layton and his New Democratic Party would receive 33% of the vote (up 9 points), largely driven by a remarkable groundswell of support in Quebec.
The once mighty Liberals under the leadership of Michael Ignatieff have been drawn down to one of the worst showings in memory: 18% (down 3 points). As for Elizabeth May and her Green Party, only 4% of the vote (unchanged) is mustered in this survey. Nationally, Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois are at 7% (up 1 point) but regionally they have taken a drastic fall since previous support in Quebec to a mere 26%.
Just six percent (6%) of Canadians are undecided.
Clearly, getting the committed vote out on Election Day Monday may mean more than ever to the Tory vote motivating machinery as it could very well be the determining factor in whether the Conservatives win yet another minority government or their coveted majority.
While the Conservatives have lost some ground over the last week, Conservative voters are also the most likely to say they're 'absolutely certain' to vote in the election (72%) with Liberal supporters not far behind (71%), followed by the NDP (67%), Green (62%) and Bloc (61%) supporters.
Further, their supporters appear to be the most committed: three quarters (72%) Conservative supporters say that they are ‘absolutely certain’ that this is the party that they will support come Election Day, higher than the proportion of Liberal (64%), NDP (63%), Bloc (60%) or Green Party (54%) supporters who say that their vote is locked in.
The following is a closer look at some of the key regions of the country where the battle will be lost or won for many of the parties:
* While the NDP have made gains across the country, the overall surge is driven by unprecedented gains in Quebec. The NDP (42%) solidly leads the Bloc Quebecois (26%), Conservatives (15%), Liberals (13%) and Green Party (3%).
* In Ontario, the Conservatives (40%) remain in first place, with the NDP in second (34%), the Liberals in third (21%) and the Green Party trailing (6%).
* In British Columbia, the Tories (42%) have a solid lead over the NDP (29%), the Liberals (26%), and the Green Party (3%).
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television from April 26-28, 2011. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,710 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone, including 100 cellphone completes.
With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled.
The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.
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Toronto, Ontario – 29 April 2011