July Sees Further Drop In UK’s Consumer Confidence
Written by GfK NOP
11 Aug 2011
The GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index has dropped five points this month to -30, with decreases seen across all five measures.
Nick Moon, Managing Director of GfK NOP Social Research, comments:
"Consumer confidence has shown the second major fall in a row, returning to the depths of the first quarter of this year. It’s becoming clear that May’s positive surge was the exception rather than the norm, as we return to -30 – wiping out almost all of May’s rise. Before this year, the index has only twice been lower in its 37-year history: during the recessions of early 1990 and mid-2008.
"All five elements of the index have fallen this month. What will concern the Government most is that the biggest drop of 9 points was in people’s expectations of the performance of the economy over the next 12 months. When combined with people’s pessimistic expectations for their own finances over the next year, retailers can expect tough conditions to persist for a while yet – threatening an already fragile recovery."
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – July 2011
The overall index score this month has decreased five points to -30, eight points lower than this time last year. All five measures decreased this month. The annual moving average drops one point to -24.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last twelve months has decreased five points this month to -25; this is eleven points lower than this time last year.
The forecast for personal finances over the next twelve months has decreased by four points this month to -12; this is six points lower than July ’10.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has decreased by seven points to –57; nine points lower than this time last year.
An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months has decreased by nine points to -27, two points lower than July ‘10.
Climate for Major Purchases
The major purchases measure has decreased by four points to -31; which is fifteen points lower than this time last year.
The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index, has increased two points to -7, which is five points lower than July ’10.
About the survey
- The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK NOP was conducted amongst a sample of 2,000 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was carried out during 1st – 10th July 2011.
- The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%
- Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are normally available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am; the release date for August is Wednesday 31st August 2011.
Any published material requires a reference to both GfK NOP and the European Commission e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission’.
This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 1996.
The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
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Last Updated ( 11 Aug 2011 )