Canadians’ confidence in the economy continued its drop from last month as the economic climate continues to worsen in both Europe and the United States. The TNS Canadian Consumer Confidence Index dropped more than another point, from 97.6 to 96.4, after dropping two points in August.
Continuing fluctuations in the stock markets, and uncertain economic news emanating from Europe and the United States are continuing to bode poorly for our own economic outlook.
“It is often said that Canada is not an island, and we are certainly seeing the effects of global economic developments on how Canadians feel about their own prospects.” said Norman Baillie-David, Vice President of TNS Canada and director of the marketing and social research firm’s monthly tracking study.
“Confidence is continuing to drop even though the Canadian economy continues to perform rather well. We are reacting to the world situation rather than our own. The fear is that falling confidence will halt spending and that tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
The Present Situation Index, which has been holding steady as Canadians tended to feel resilient despite the problems elsewhere, has now dropped almost four points, from 99.0 to 95.2. The Present Situation Index measures how people feel about the economy right now, meaning Canadians are not feeling very good about their own situation.
The Expectations Index, which measures people’s outlook for the economy six months from now, is the Index which shows the greatest impact of the fear caused by the economic uncertainty. This Index dropped another half-point from 99.6 to 98.4 after having dropped six full points in August. “In August, Canadians feeling about their future prospects fell hard. Now, this has translated into how they feel about the here and now.” added Mr. Baillie-David.
The Buy Index, which measures the extent to which Canadians’ feel that now is a good time to purchase a “big ticket item”, such as a car or a major household appliance, actually showed a slight increase moving from 93.7 to 95.5, but we attribute this to sampling error, given the results in the other three indices.
Consumer Confidence Index tracks Canadians’ attitudes about the economy each month and is part of a global study conducted by TNS in 18 countries. Three indices are produced each month to show how confidence in the economy is changing: Present Situation Index; an Expectations Index; and a Buy Index.
The Canadian fieldwork is conducted using the firm’s national bi-weekly telephone omnibus service, TNS Express Telephone.
A total of 1,015 nationally representative Canadian adults were interviewed between September 6 and September 9, 2011. For a survey sample of this size, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
About the CCI study
Seven questions make up the core survey of Consumer Confidence. While the overall CCI index uses all 7 questions to produce an index score, there are three sub-indices that rely on some of the questions.
CCI Index: Includes all 7 variables
Present Situation Index:
- How would you describe your country's current economic situation?
- How would you describe your country's current employment situation?
- What do you think will be your country's economic situation in the next 6 months?
- What do you think will be your country's employment situation in the next 6 months?
- What do you think your income will be in 6 months time?
Taking into consideration the cost of things today and the financial situation in general, to what extent would you say that now is a good or bad time to buy products such as: a house or apartment, a car, household appliances such as a washing machine, a refrigerator, a TV set etc.?
About Norman Baillie-David:
Norman (“Norm”) Baillie-David is Vice President and Director of Public Opinion Research , and Head of Qualitative Research and Strategy for TNS Canada. He also leads the TNS office in the National Capital Region, as well as sitting on the TNS Global Steering Committee for Political and Social Research.
Norm is a seasoned market researcher and bilingual focus group moderator, with g g p more than twenty five years of experience in market and social research and strategy development. As a bilingual and bicultural Montrealer originally, Norman is one of those rare researchers who conducts research in a seamless and transparent manner among both English and French Canadians, with each group believing that he is “one of their own”. The result is a keen insider’s perspective on sentiments across the country among both English and French. Having conducted more than 1,000 surveys and many more focus groups, Norm is constantly abreast of what Canadian consumers across the country are thinking and feeling about their prospects.
Norm has designed and managed more than 1,000 surveys in a wide-variety of areas, ranging from high-technology to consumer products, and Norman is a recognized “expert” in complex survey methodology design and multivariate statistical analysis. He is in frequent demand by the media and market research industry in Canada to speak on the comparisons and contrasts of public opinion in Quebec and the rest of Canada, and has published widely. In addition, Norm has conducted assignments in more than 40 different countries around the world, and has a keen interest in cross-cultural issues, especially related to public opinion and the use of technology.
Before joining TNS Canada, Norm was Managing Partner of an Ottawa-based public opinion research and management consulting firm (2001-2009). He spent most of his preceding career at a major management consulting firm, as well as three years with a wellknown Quebec market research firm. He is a Certified Marketing Research Professional (CMRP), member of the Market Research Intelligence Association (MRIA), and he served as a President of the Ottawa Chapter from 2002 to 2004.
If you would like to add proprietary questions to the CCI study, obtain full tabular results, receive a historical time series for all the index scores, or if you have other inquiries about CCI, please contact:
Please visit www.tnsglobal.com for more information.
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Toronto, Canada - 15 Septemebr 2011