GfK’s UK Consumer Confidence Index has increased by one point this month and is now at -28.
Nick Moon, Managing Director of Social Research at GfK, comments:
“Following the much-anticipated but ultimately unseen lift from the Jubilee and Olympics, even a one point increase in the Index, will offer some grounds for optimism to the Government after such a stagnant summer. Small though this month’s rise is, the Index is now higher than at any time since June last year, which the Government and retailers will hope means that we could be seeing the start of an uplifting Autumn. However, we will have to wait for next month’s figures to see if there has been a real change in public mood and people are beginning to feel more secure economically just in time for Christmas or whether this is just an end-of-Summer blip.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – September 2012 The overall index score has increased by one point this month at -28. Two of the five measures saw increases this month, with the remaining three measures staying the same. The annual moving average stays the same at -30.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last twelve months has stayed the same this month at -21; this is three points higher than September 2011. The forecast for personal finances over the next twelve months has increased two points to -8; this is two points higher than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has increased one point to -54; this is four points higher than September 2012. An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months has stayed the same, at -27, also the same as September ‘11.
Climate for Major Purchases
The major purchases measure has stayed the same this month at -31; which is three points lower than this time last year.
The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index, has decreased five points to -18, which is four points lower than September ’11.
About the survey
- The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK on behalf of the EU, with similar surveys being conducted in each European country. In producing its own reports on the whole of Europe, the EU applies a seasonal adjustment to the data, to smooth out any changes that are functions at least in part of the time of year.
- Historically, the UK data have not been seasonally adjusted in this way, and to maintain comparability, GfK continues not to apply this adjustment. This can lead to situations where the EU figures show different movements in a particular month from those produced by GfK. Individual months may be affected, but the long term trend is not.
- The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK was conducted amongst a sample of 2,004 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was carried out during 31st August - 9th September 2012.
- The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
- Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are normally available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am; the release date for September 2012 is Wednesday 31st October 2012.
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 1996.
‘Research carried out by GfK on behalf of the European Commission’.
About GfK NOP
For more information please visit http://www.gfknop.com/
28 September 2012