GfK’s UK Consumer Confidence Index has decreased by two points this month and is now at -30.
Nick Moon, Managing Director of Social Research at GfK, comments:
“Just as the economy moves out of recession consumer confidence dips again. While we are not quite back to the levels of this time last year, the Index has not been this low in six months.
“While the Olympics are thought to have boosted GDP in the last quarter, the late Summer boost in consumer sentiment has now faded. The government will be concerned that the economic bounce will follow a similar path and deflate during the Autumn.
“The fragility of the recovery is underlined by the fact that people are more worried about their own financial situation over the next 12 months. This certainly doesn’t suggest there will be a spending boom on the back of the official emergence from recession.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – October 2012 The overall index score has decreased two points this month to -30. Four of the five measures saw decreases this month, with the remaining measure increasing one point. The annual moving average stays the same at -30.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last twelve months has decreased three points this month to -24; this is the same level as October 2011. The forecast for personal finances over the next twelve months has decreased five points to -13; this is three points lower than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has increased one point to -53; this is nine points higher than October 2011.
An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months has decreased to -29 this month, this is two points higher than October 2011.
Climate for Major Purchases
The major purchases measure has dropped two points this month to -33; which is one point lower than this time last year.
The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index, has increased one point to -17, which is seven points lower than October ’11.
About the survey
- The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK on behalf of the EU, with similar surveys being conducted in each European country. In producing its own reports on the whole of Europe, the EU applies a seasonal adjustment to the data, to smooth out any changes that are functions at least in part of the time of year.
- Historically, the UK data have not been seasonally adjusted in this way, and to maintain comparability, GfK continues not to apply this adjustment. This can lead to situations where the EU figures show different movements in a particular month from those produced by GfK. Individual months may be affected, but the long term trend is not.
- The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK was conducted amongst a sample of 2,004 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was carried out during 5th – 14th October 2012.
- The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
- Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are normally available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am; the release date for November 2012 is Friday 30th November 2012.
- Any published material requires a reference to both GfK and the European Commission e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK on behalf of the European Commission’.
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 1996.
The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
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31 October 2012