November sees An Increase In The UK’s Consumer Confidence
Written by GfK
30 Nov 2012
Nick Moon, Managing Director of Social Research at GfK, comments:
“This is an unexpected rise in consumer confidence and comes despite uninspiring economic news recently. The improvement is especially dramatic following such a stagnant summer and represents the seventh highest increase since the Index began in 1974.
“The improvement in consumer confidence will be especially welcomed by retailers as the figures show that people are increasingly optimistic about how the economy will perform over the next twelve months. This could be because consumers now think things can’t get any worse or it may be for more positive reasons, but either way it is good news as we look ahead to 2013.
“The direction things head in the New Year will be crucial in determining whether this is a short-term spike or the start of a long-term improvement in people’s spending habits. When we saw a significant improvement like this in May 2011 the surge ebbed away over the following few months as the country returned to recession. Hopefully this spike is built on firmer foundations.”
For further insights from Nick Moon, please watch the following video: http://youtu.be/EC_gdQGdyoQ
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – November 2012 The overall index score has increased eight points this month to -22. All five measures saw increases this month. The annual moving average decreases one point to -29.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last twelve months has increased three points this month to -21; this is two points higher than November 2011. The forecast for personal finances over the next twelve months has increased six points to -7; this is three points higher than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has increased nine points to -44; this is seventeen points higher than November 2011.
An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months has increased fourteen points this month to -15; this is eighteen points higher than November 2011.
About the survey
- The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK on behalf of the EU, with similar surveys being conducted in each European country. In producing its own reports on the whole of Europe, the EU applies a seasonal adjustment to the data, to smooth out any changes that are functions at least in part of the time of year.
- Historically, the UK data have not been seasonally adjusted in this way, and to maintain comparability, GfK continues not to apply this adjustment. This can lead to situations where the EU figures show different movements in a particular month from those produced by GfK. Individual months may be affected, but the long term trend is not.
- The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK was conducted amongst a sample of 2,001 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was carried out during 2nd – 11th November 2012.
- The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
- Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are normally available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am; the release date for December 2012 is Friday 21st December 2012.
- Any published material requires a reference to both GfK and the European Commission e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK on behalf of the European Commission’.
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 1996.
- The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
About The GfK Group
For further information, visit our website: www.gfk.com
30 November 2012
Last Updated ( 03 Sep 2013 )