Currently the EU Referendum odds are around 4/7 to Remain and 5/4 on Leave, with the gap narrowing. The latest poll of polls (What the UK thinks - http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinionpolls/ poll-of-polls/) shows the average of the recent 6 polls (to June 13) at 49% in 51% out. The most recent polls may have been influenced by the very British Royal celebrations last weekend.
JGFR commissioned research from GfK * in May shows that the majority of people expect the result to show a win for the Remain camp with 54% expecting the country to vote Remain compared to 32% who expect the country to vote to Leave. Overall 63% of the public expect the country to vote to Remain and 37% to Leave (excluding the 14% of adults with no opinion on the EU referendum).
By gender, age groups and income bands, all expect a Remain victory.
The expected EU Referendum vote 2016, by gender, age and household income bands
Source: GfK / JGFR
Biggest support to stay is among women, the under 50s and higher earners; by working status all groups show a majority for Remain. Both full and part time workers have the same proportion expecting a vote to stay (57%), although more of the former (33%) than the latter (28%) expect a vote to go.
Education and workers classification divide the public. People with primary (44% v 36%) and secondary education (45% v 40%) are in a majority expecting a Leave victory. This compares to people with further (51% v 33%) or university education (70% v 21%) expecting a Remain victory.
Nearly 4 out of 5 students expect Remain success.
Among the workforce, those in skilled manual (54% v 38%) and other manual work (57% v 35%) expect a Leave victory, compared to 65% of the self-employed and professionals and 59% of clerical and office employees who expect a Remain victory.
All regions expect the UK to vote Remain with greatest expectations in Scotland and Northern Ireland (both 64%) and London (62%). The highest proportions expecting a Leave victory are in Yorkshire/Humberside (40%), the East Midlands (38%) and the North West (37%)
Stay or Go: Regional expectations of EU referendum vote, 2016
Source: GfK / JGFR
Far more people who intend to be financially active in the coming months expect the country to vote to stay in the EU. Indeed intended financial activity in the coming months is well above average with strong saving intentions, property purchase intentions and a notable increase in investor sentiment.
Commented John Gilbert, Chief Executive of JGFR: “While the polls are coming thick and fast with little between the Remain and Leave voting intentions, the public, like the bookies, shares a belief in success for the Remain camp.”
*GfK interviewed 2,000 adults aged 16+, representative of the UK population by telephone between May 1 and 15 2016