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18 June 2007 - Short methodology for use when publishing results This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 6,169 adults (aged 16 and over) within France (1,012), Germany (1,014), Great Britain (1,025), Spain (1,010) and the United States (1,018) and adults (aged 18 and over) in Italy (1,090) between 31st May and 12th June 2007. Complete survey methodology This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 6,169 adults (aged 16 and over) within France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain, and the United States and adults (aged 18 and over) in Italy between 31st May and 12th June 2007. Figures for age, sex, education, region and Internet usage were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, non-response (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting. With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided. With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 6,169, one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results would have a sampling error of +/-1.5 percentage point. For individual countries, sampling error would be +/-3 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated. TABLE 1 KNOWLEDGE OF EU CONSTITUTIONAL TREATY "Are you aware of what the European Union’s constitutional treaty is?" Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted base | 1025 | 1012 | 1090 | 1010 | 1014 | 1018 | | | | | | | | Aware (NET) | 45 | 52 | 72 | 77 | 54 | 26 | Extremely aware | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Very aware | 8 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 8 | 4 | Somewhat aware | 35 | 46 | 55 | 58 | 44 | 21 | Not aware (NET) | 55 | 48 | 28 | 23 | 46 | 74 | Just heard the name | 30 | 43 | 23 | 19 | 35 | 27 | Never heard of it | 24 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 48 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Many in Great Britain are not aware of the EU treaty, in fact one-quarter say they have never heard of it. In the other European countries, majorities are aware of the treaty, with Italians and the Spanish being most aware. TABLE 2 REWORKED TREATY TO REFERENDUM "Do you think that a reworked European Union constitutional treaty needs to be put to a referendum in those countries that have not already approved it?" Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults who are at least somewhat aware of E U Treaty | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted base | 479 | 601 | 851 | 827 | 576 | 324 | | | | | | | | Yes | 69 | 64 | 68 | 75 | 71 | 55 | No | 9 | 25 | 20 | 10 | 22 | 11 | Not Sure | 22 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 7 | 34 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding There is a strong consensus as at least two-thirds across all the countries believe the reworked EU treaty needs to be put to a referendum. TABLE 3 PERMANENT PRESIDENT "Do you think that the EU should have a permanent president?" Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted base | 1025 | 1012 | 1090 | 1010 | 1014 | 1018 | | | | | | | | Yes | 14 | 38 | 34 | 54 | 48 | 11 | No | 52 | 44 | 59 | 27 | 35 | 32 | Not Sure | 34 | 17 | 7 | 18 | 17 | 57 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding There is definitely a split in this question as a majority of those in Spain and close to half of Germans think there should be a permanent president while majorities in Italy and Great Britain do not think so. French adults are split with a plurality say no to a permanent president. TABLE 4 EU FOREIGN MINISTER "Do you think that the EU should have a foreign minister?" Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted base | 1025 | 1012 | 1090 | 1010 | 1014 | 1018 | | | | | | | | Yes | 41 | 69 | 81 | 75 | 63 | 43 | No | 28 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 26 | 12 | Not Sure | 31 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 46 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Having a foreign minister, on the other hand, receives strong consensus across most of the countries. Great Britain is the only country where a majority does not support this idea. TABLE 5 NEW EU MEMBERS "Do you think the European Union should continue to take in new member countries?" Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted base | 1025 | 1012 | 1090 | 1010 | 1014 | 1018 | | | | | | | | Yes | 29 | 20 | 48 | 35 | 33 | 46 | No | 47 | 67 | 41 | 40 | 55 | 5 | Not Sure | 23 | 13 | 11 | 25 | 12 | 49 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Italy is the only European country, among the five EU countries surveyed, where taking in new member countries outweighs not taking them in. France and Germany are the two countries where anti-expansion feelings are the strongest. TABLE 6 ALLOWING TURKEY INTO EU "Do you think that Turkey should be invited to join the EU?" Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted base | 1025 | 1012 | 1090 | 1010 | 1014 | 1018 | | | | | | | | Yes | 23 | 16 | 31 | 26 | 21 | 32 | No | 46 | 71 | 55 | 46 | 66 | 13 | Not Sure | 31 | 13 | 14 | 28 | 13 | 55 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Across all countries, not inviting Turkey outweighs inviting Turkey into the EU. Spain and Great Britain adults, however, show some hesitancy as over one-quarter in both countries are unsure. TABLE 7 ALLOWING TURKEY INTO EU WITH REFORMS "If Turkey were to implement reforms desired by some EU member states, should it be invited to join the EU?" Base: Adults who were not sure or did not think Turkey should be invited to join the EU | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted base | 769 | 839 | 751 | 726 | 786 | 655 | | | | | | | | Yes | 21 | 21 | 32 | 36 | 38 | 27 | No | 43 | 64 | 54 | 36 | 49 | 7 | Not Sure | 36 | 15 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 66 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding The idea of adding additional reforms for Turkey to have to make does not overwhelmingly change people’s minds about inviting them to join the EU, but it does move at least a third of Italian, Spanish and German adults. TABLE 8 TOTAL ALLOWING TURKEY INTO EU WITH REFORMS Total for allowing Turkey into the EU (combining yeses from Table 6 and 7) Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted base | 1025 | 1012 | 1090 | 1010 | 1014 | 1018 | | | | | | | | Yes | 40 | 34 | 53 | 53 | 51 | 50 | No | 33 | 54 | 37 | 27 | 38 | 5 | Not Sure | 28 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 11 | 45 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Looking at the combined yes reponses, by adding in reforms a majority of adults in Germany, Spain and Italy are now in favor of Turkey being invited to join the EU while a majority of French adults still say no. Great Britain is most divided. TABLE 8 ROLE OF EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK "Do you think that the primary role of the European Central Bank should be to promote economic growth, or to guarantee stable prices?" Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted base | 1025 | 1012 | 1090 | 1010 | 1014 | 1018 | | | | | | | | Guarantee stable prices | 45 | 44 | 45 | 60 | 58 | 27 | Promote economic growth | 31 | 47 | 48 | 34 | 33 | 35 | Not Sure | 24 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 38 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding While a majority of Spanish and German adults and just under half of British adults say the Bank’s primary role should be guaranteeing stable prices, France and Italy are more divided with promoting economic growth just edging out pricing stability. TABLE 9 COMPETITION WITH ASIA "Do you think that the EU should be doing more to protect its citizens and workforce from competition from low-cost manufacturers such as those in Asia?" Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted base | 1025 | 1012 | 1090 | 1010 | 1014 | 1018 | | | | | | | | Yes | 71 | 86 | 90 | 90 | 83 | 48 | No | 12 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 11 | Not Sure | 16 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 41 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Clearly, there is a very strong consensus that the EU should be doing more to protect those within its borders from competition. TABLE 10 TONY BLAIR AS EU PRESIDENT "Do you think that Tony Blair would make a good full-time president of the European Union?" Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted base | 1025 | 1012 | 1090 | 1010 | 1014 | 1018 | | | | | | | | Yes | 20 | 16 | 27 | 17 | 12 | 40 | No | 60 | 53 | 46 | 56 | 64 | 20 | Not Sure | 20 | 32 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 40 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding While Tony Blair may be looking for employment, the presidency of the EU is not where he should look. US adults, showing how they feel about one of the US’s strongest allies, are the only ones to say he would make a good president of the EU, but it’s still not a majority. TABLE 11 GREATEST THREAT TO GLOBAL STABILITY Q1660_1 "Which one, if any, of the following countries do you think is the greatest threat to global stability?" Base: All EU adults in five countries | Great Britain | France | Italy | Spain | Germany | United States | % | % | % | % | % | % | Unweighted Base | 1025 | 1012 | 1090 | 1010 | 1014 | 1018 | | | | | | | | US | 30 | 31 | 21 | 46 | 32 | 11 | Iran | 13 | 20 | 22 | 14 | 15 | 23 | Iraq | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 10 | China | 16 | 22 | 26 | 12 | 18 | 20 | North Korea | 14 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 25 | Russia | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 3 | Israel | * | * | * | 1 | * | * | Pakistan | * | * | - | - | - | - | Muslim Countries (not specified) | - | - | - | * | - | - | Saudi Arabia | - | - | - | * | - | - | Afghanistan | - | - | - | - | * | - | Romania | - | - | * | - | * | - | Syria | - | * | * | - | - | - | No one county - all are a threat | - | - | * | - | - | * | Palestine | - | - | * | - | - | - | Africa (country not specified) | - | * | * | - | - | - | India | - | - | - | * | * | * | Other | - | * | * | 1 | - | 1 | None | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 6 | Not sure | 1 | * | * | * | * | * |
*Less Than 0.5% "-" Not Applicable
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