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November 11th 2008 Plus An Update On Grocery Price Inflation
Ed Garner, Director of Research, TNS Worldpanel, comments: The latest TNS Worldpanel grocery market share figures, published today for the 12 weeks ending 2nd November 2008 underline the way in which the economic downturn is impacting grocery shares. Put simply, retailers with a strong price positioning are continuing to benefit whereas the premium end of the market is clearly under increasing pressure. Waitrose has seen its growth rate fall back progressively for the last 8 reporting periods and is now standing at 1.3% year-on-year growth. This is in very stark contrast to the Discounters where growth continues to power ahead. The Total Discounter sector (Aldi, Lidl and Netto) now stands at a record 6.2% market share for the 12 weeks ending 2nd November 2008 and Aldi’s year-on-year growth has hit a record 23.9%. For the major outlets, the pace continues to be set by Asda and Morrisons which are both out-performing the market with growth rates of 9.0% and 9.4% respectively. Pressure on the Tesco share continues with a year-on-year drop of 0.4 share points but the Sainsbury’s performance is surprisingly robust with share virtually unchanged in the context of a market increasingly driven by value-based messages. An update on inflation As we predicted last period, grocery price inflation has started to fall back and the figure for the 12 week-ending period 2nd November 2008 has dropped to 8.9% from 9.3% last time. This figure is based on over 75,000 identical products compared year-on-year in the proportions purchased by British shoppers and therefore represents the most authoritative figure currently available. Total Till Roll Great Britain Consumer Spend Includes all expenditure through main store tills and excludes petrol & instore concession
| | 12 Weeks to 04 November 2007 | 12 Weeks to 02 November 2008 | change | | | £000s | % ** | £000s | % ** | % | | Total Till Roll | 26,788,715 | | 27,847,032 | | 4.0 | | Total Grocers | 18,896,836 | 100.0% | 20,150,879 | 100.0% | 6.6 | | Total Multiples | 17,571,900 | 93.0% | 18,814,656 | 93.4% | 7.1 | | Tesco | 5,911,966 | 31.3% | 6,234,051 | 30.9% | 5.4 | | Asda | 3,161,674 | 16.7% | 3,447,163 | 17.1% | 9.0 | | Sainsbury's | 3,020,072 | 16.0% | 3,200,392 | 15.9% | 6.0 | | Morrisons | 2,107,563 | 11.2% | 2,305,019 | 11.4% | 9.4 | | Somerfield | 785,290 | 4.2% | 782,966 | 3.9% | -0.3 | | Waitrose | 750,788 | 4.0% | 760,250 | 3.8% | 1.3 | | Iceland | 313,026 | 1.7% | 347,266 | 1.7% | 10.9 | | Netto | 155,170 | 0.8% | 161,300 | 0.8% | 4.0 | | Lidl | 424,416 | 2.2% | 471,205 | 2.3% | 11.0 | | Aldi | 493,687 | 2.6% | 611,572 | 3.0% | 23.9 | | Farm Foods | 88,966 | 0.5% | 108,886 | 0.5% | 22.4 | | Other Freezer Centres | 43,067 | 0.2% | 48,834 | 0.2% | 13.4 | | Other Multiples | 316,215 | 1.7% | 335,752 | 1.7% | 6.2 | | Total Coops | 823,978 | 4.4% | 840,465 | 4.2% | 2.0 | | Total Independents | 500,958 | 2.7% | 495,758 | 2.5% | -1.0 | | Total Symbols | 181,771 | 1.0% | 173,772 | 0.9% | -4.4 | | Other Independents | 319,188 | 1.7% | 321,986 | 1.6% | 0.9 |
** = Percentage Share of Total Grocers These findings are based on TNS Worldpanel data for the 12 weeks to 11th November 2008. TNS Worldpanel monitors the household grocery purchasing habits of 25,000 demographically representative households in Great Britain. All data discussed in the above announcement is based on the value of items being bought by these consumers, TNS will only support data that is published in the context we have presented it and our own interpretation of these findings. We cannot be held responsible for any other interpretation of these findings. About TNS TNS is a global market information and insight group. Its strategic goal is to be recognised as the global leader in delivering value-added information and insights that help its clients make more effective business decisions. TNS delivers innovative thinking and excellent service across a network of 80 countries. Working in partnership with clients, TNS provides high-quality information, analysis and insight that improves understanding of consumer behaviour. TNS is the world’s leading provider of customised services, combining sector knowledge with expertise in the areas of Product Development & Innovation, Brand & Communications, Stakeholder Management and Retail & Shopper. TNS is a major supplier of consumer panel, media intelligence and audience measurement services. www.tnsglobal.com
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