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Latest Deloitte/MORI Delivery Index – Back to reality? pessimism over the future of Britain’s economy and public services after short election honeymoon
The latest Deloitte/MORI Delivery Index shows a new fall in optimism in the government’s long term policies towards the economy and public services in September.
There has been a 180 degree flip from optimism to pessimism about the economy. Immediately after the election optimists outnumbered pessimists by 47% to 38% of the population. Now these figures are almost exactly reversed: 50% do not think the government’s policies will improve the economy in the long term, compared to 39% who are optimistic. Similarly, the proportion thinking the government’s policies will improve Britain’s public services has fallen from 43% in May to 34% in September (55% are now pessimistic). While optimism towards the economy and public services had been rising steadily since 2003, these results mean that public expectations return to similar levels as those in the first half of 2004.
The public are also less optimistic about individual public services, in particular about health services and the environment. The most marked drop is with optimism towards the NHS. The proportion thinking the NHS will get better has fallen from more than one in three (37%) in May to around one in four (26%) now, while those who believe it will get worse has increased by a similar amount (from 28% to 37%). This means that public expectations of the NHS are now close to the worst recorded in the Deloitte/MORI Delivery Index, in September 2003. There has also been a large decline in expectations about the quality of the environment, with nearly half of the public (47%) believing it will get worse, compared with 38% thinking this just after the election.
The public have also become slightly more negative about the quality of education, the way their area is policed and public transport. It is now the case that the only services where the balance of opinion amongst the electorate is positive are education (with 33% thinking it will get better and 25% think it will get worse) and policing (24% expect it to get better and 23% worse).
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Ben Page, Director of MORI Social Research Institute, said “This drop in expectations is to be expected, as the positive results in the last wave were likely to have been influenced by a post-election bounce. Nevertheless, the Government will be concerned about the re-emergence of the so-called ‘perceptions gap’, particularly in attitudes towards the NHS, where local patient experiences are not feeding through into attitudes towards the national institution. The government will want to ask itself two questions: 1) Are we satisfied that investment is being noticed?? 2) Are the quantity of initiatives and reforms being pushed through having an unsettling impact on the public?”
Mike Kerr, head of public sector at Deloitte, commented:? "Whilst post-election optimism has seemingly evaporated, the reasons and extent of this are very unclear. It may be nothing more than a reaction to headlines or entrenched perceptions - but if this trend continues or if perceptions translate into experience then the government will need to respond. Improving the productivity of public services is one of the most critical parts of public service reform, especially if the 2007 Spending Review requires an unpopular reduction in public spending.? Productivity is not about efficiency cuts, which may prove counter-productive, but a re-organisation of the way government and its agencies deliver public services."
For further information please contact:
Ben Page/ Gideon Skinner?Christopher Exeter/ Mike Kerr
MORI
020 7347 3000?Deloitte
0207 303 3355
? Technical Details
The Deloitte/MORI Delivery Index is a regular tracking survey focusing on general attitudes on the prospects for the economy and public services in Britain, as well as expectations on the five key public service areas, health, education, policing, public transport and the environment.?
MORI interviewed 971 adults aged 18+ by telephone, between 16-18 September 2005.? Results are weighted to the correct profile of the British population.
The next Deloitte/MORI Delivery Index will be carried out in November.
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