Recent Retail Footfall Decline Raises Concern For Holiday Shopping Season In The UK

Aggregated RTI results for quarter 3 (July - September) record a decline of 2.4% against the same quarter in 2009, better than the 3.4% deficit of quarter 2. Against August, retail footfall was down by 9.4% last month, higher than the 5 year rolling average of 8.3%.

Commenting on the latest figures, Dr Tim Denison, Director of Retail Intelligence at Synovate says:
"We are disappointed by the September results. Over the summer there was an improvement in the year-on-year trend suggesting that the British shopper was quietly returning to everyday living. I hope that last month's downturn turns out to be a blip, but the fear is that it may be an early indicator that consumer uncertainty about the future state of the economy is morphing into anxiety about personal wealth and well-being. Whilst the majority of people seem to have accepted earlier in the year the political case for austerity measures, the harsh consequences of such actions are perhaps now beginning to dawn, with October's spending review around the corner. This realisation may have adversely affected people's appetite to shop come the end of the summer holidays."

Regional figures continue to show a contrast between London and South East England and the rest of the country.

Elsewhere, the comparators are all showing declines.
The worst affected region is Scotland and Northern Ireland where the three month average is down by 5.7%. South West England and Wales fare only marginally better at -4.3%.

"Clearly there are some important positives out there," continued Denison.

"If shoppers in London and the South East continue to buck the trend shown elsewhere, it will help secure satisfactory results for retailers over the crucial last quarter of the year. If, however, activity tails off over the coming months, we could be slipping towards a pretty bleak winter. In my view though, it is far too early to make a prediction about Christmas trading. We will need to wait until next month's spending review by the Government is over and the impact on consumer confidence is known, before we can judge the state of the shopper's psyche and their level of resolve."

UK - 8 October 2010