Grocery market sees sharp decreases in growth this period
The latest grocery share figures from Kantar Worldpanel, published today for the 12 weeks ending 13 May 2012, show the market growing at 3.1%. This is a sharp decrease on the 5.0% growth reported last period. What’s more, in the four weeks ending 13 May 2012, the grocery market has actually declined by 1.0%.
Edward Garner, director at Kantar Worldpanel, explains:
“On the face of it, the declines in market growth might seem alarming but there are exceptional factors. Easter and the Royal Wedding helped year-on-year growth soar to a remarkable 7.6% in the four weeks leading up to May 15 2011 – a hint of what’s to come over the Jubilee weekend. Comparing the current figures with the same period two years ago, the four week growth stands at 6.5%. This is actually in line with long-term trends and shows 2011 as the anomaly.”
Against this backdrop, the retailers might expect to record depressed growth however Aldi tells a different story. The retailer has posted growth of 25.4% to achieve a share of 2.8% – another all-time record. Lidl also holds on to its record 2.8% share from last period with 11.3% growth and Waitrose continues to outpace the market with 7.0% growth.
Edward continues:
“The ongoing strong performances of Aldi and Lidl have led some commentators to believe that consumers are deserting conventional stores for the discount sector. However, a more realistic picture of shopper behaviour shows that many consumers are continuing to do their main shopping trip in their usual store, but spending the remainder of their household budget on the discounters.”
Among the big four, Sainsbury’s holds on to its share while Tesco and Morrisons continue to feel the pressure. Asda remains strong with 6.5% growth, reflecting the addition of Netto stores. The stubbornly high level of food price inflation means that shoppers continue to feel the squeeze on their household budgets.
An update on inflation
Grocery inflation stands at 5.1%* for the 12 week period ending 13 May 2012. This is a decrease from the level of 5.5% last period but remains above the market growth meaning that households are still trying to rein in grocery spending by managing down their ‘personal inflation’.
*This figure is based on over 75,000 identical products compared year-on-year in the proportions purchased by British shoppers and therefore represents the most authoritative figure currently available. It is a ‘pure’ inflation measure in that shopping behaviour is held constant between the two comparison periods – shoppers are likely to achieve a lower personal inflation rate if they trade down or seek out more offers.
The number of households in the Kantar Worldpanel sample has increased by 20% to 30,000 – making it one of the largest continuous panels of its kind in the world. As part of this process, the monthly supermarket share data has been updated to reflect the panel changes, which come into effect from March 2012.
Changes to retailer shares, as a result of the increased panel size, are marginal and do not impact reported performance. Period-on-period changes will not be affected as the historical data has been reworked to maintain consistency.
Please also note, as part of this updating process, there has been a reduction in the stated Aldi turnover and market share to bring it in line with the outlet’s own reported performance. The strong period-on-period growth trend of the outlet remains unaffected.
For all publicly-quoted Worldpanel data, users of our research (including media) must ensure that data is now sourced Kantar Worldpanel.
These findings are based on Kantar Worldpanel data for the 12 weeks to 13 May 2012. Kantar Worldpanel monitors the household grocery purchasing habits of 30,000 demographically representative households in Great Britain. All data discussed in the above announcement is based on the value of items being bought by these consumers, Kantar will only support data that is published in the context we have presented it and our own interpretation of these findings. We cannot be held responsible for any other interpretation of these findings.
About Kantar
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About Kantar Worldpanel
For further information, please visit www.kantarworldpanel.com
22 May 2012
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